Harry Reid Re-Election

So I was asked to discuss Harry Reid's chances of Re-Election and I find the subject to be very fascinating and so I will try to explain my thoughts on the issue at hand.

First off I will say that I think its way to soon to predict or even know at all if he will be re-elected and I will explain why. Their are many different issues that will impact his ability to be re-elected and most of them impact each other so we will see if they have a positive or negative domino effect for Senator Reid.

As all know, Harry Reid is the Senate Majority Leader for the democrats. Reid being in this position really will have the biggest impact on his re-election chances. The reason for this is because he will be linked directly with what happens with President Obama. If Obama is able to improve his pool ratings than I feel that Harry Reid's pools will go up as well. Being linked to Obama overall is not a bad thing if President Obama can improve on a few main issues.

I find that the worst thing that Obama, Reid and Pelosi have done for themselves is continue to strive with their Health Care bill. They were not successful with 60 Democrat Senators and so I really do not see them being successful with 59. Their overall outlook has only really been viewed upon by looking at their health care success and if it does not improve than their pools will not improve. I feel they should scratch the issue and really either start over or distance themselves from the subject and try to improve their candidacy from a different angle. So Harry Reid's re-election will depend a lot on Obama's health care bill but their is one issue that being linked to President Obama is a positive for him.

Obama recently mentioned that he is planning on closing down Yucca Mountain and with Nevada residents not really being supportive of Yucca this really could help Reid's re-election. I personally was in favor of Nevada having Yucca Mountain but for Reid and many of those who did not like the waste coming to Nevada it is a very positive thing for them for Obama to mention it being closed down.

With a few years for more and different national issues to arrive, Reid's link to Obama as his Senate Majority Leader will continue to impact his re-election chances a lot.

Moving on. When people think of Nevada they all think of Vegas and the revenue that comes from Gambling. Senator Reid for many decades has had a close tie with the gambling industry and many times it has been this link that has helped him continue to be re-elected. Nearly one in every three jobs in Nevada is linked to the gambling industry and so if he can keep his link to the industry it will help him a lot in the long term. Something to note though is that the gambling industry really is not tied to democrats or republicans but to the people themselves so if any other candidates can convince some major casinos to back them than it could help swing them into election. Recently the owner of the MGM backed Senator Reid and so his link to gambling as of now seems to be strong which will help him.

In politics many times it is not what you know but who you know and what they give you. This is where Senator Reid as the incumbent really I feel owns Nevada. He has so much more money than any other person and it has been his money that has basically bought his re-elections the last couple of times. With a chest full of cash he really has the advantage of advertising and with many voters that are ignorant to the issues it is their ability to simply know someones name that causes them to vote for someone.

As of now Harry Reid is behind all of the republican candidates in the pools but we must first remember that the republicans still will be going through a primary. A primary election will cause three negative things for the republicans.

First Reid will be able to focus his attention on improving his positive outlook at a time that his opponents really wont be able to focus on him.

Secondly, as most primaries bring, the republicans will be fighting against each other and this usually causes their pools to all go down. For example Huckabee as a republican himself really caused Mitt Romney to have no chance in the republican primary and both of them basically hurt each other. Primaries are interesting as they settle who will be the candidate but basically it tears the candidates down. So Harry Reid will be hoping for Lowden,Tarkanian and other Republican candidates to basically kill their own chances for election by bringing up dirt on each other.

Lastly the primary will cause the republicans to spend a lot of their already small budgets on each other. By the time one of them wins their might not be much to spend and so Reid would be able to come in and dominate the advertising spending and no matter who the republican candidate is it really might not matter.

So after all of my rambling I will conclude on why I feel that Harry Reid has a lot more of a chance for re-election than the pools really show. I hate how money really can buy an election but with Harry Reid having about 5 times more money than the other candidates I feel that this cant be over looked. If the republican candidate can get out of the primary with a decent amount of money, unscratched with no dirt on them and momentum than Reid's money might not have as much impact.

Lastly as mentioned above I feel that Reid's re-election will actually depend on how Obama is doing. With Reid being linked so heavily as part of the 3 headed monster this really could help the Republicans if their overall success does not improve nationally.

As of right now I would say that Reid will not be re-elected as all democrats are suffering all over the nation but lets remember that time always changes things. When the election is upon us many things would of been forgotten, issues could of changed and anything is possible. If you do not believe this just remember the changes that really helped Obama take office. (Change form National Security Issues to Economy in just a few months).

Lets go GOP and lets try to win back the Senate starting with taking out the Senate Majority Leader.

Mr. P.

(Please Respond With Comments)